As Southeast Asian countries ramp up military modernization, European arms suppliers — especially France — are emerging as the region’s go-to partners. But could that change with China pushing its defense technology into the market? According to The Diplomat, a recent air skirmish between India and Pakistan has rekindled interest in Chinese military hardware. Reports suggest that a Chinese-made J-10 fighter jet operated by Pakistan managed to shoot down an Indian Rafale — the pride of France’s Dassault Aviation and one of the Indian Air Force’s most advanced assets. This incident, though difficult to verify in detail, sparked debate over the capabilities of Chinese-made aircraft versus Western ones.
Just days before the conflict, India had sealed a $7.4 billion deal to buy 26 more Rafales, underlining its deepening ties with French defense manufacturers. This choice reflects a broader pattern seen across Southeast Asia.
Europe’s Growing Footprint in Southeast Asia’s Military Plans
Indonesia, for instance, has been at the forefront of regional defense upgrades. Jakarta committed to buying 42 Rafales in a deal worth about $8 billion, with the first aircraft scheduled to arrive soon. But it hasn’t stopped at aircraft — Indonesia is diversifying across domains. It purchased two Italian-made frigates and is co-producing two more under a British license. A joint project with France’s Naval Group to build Scorpene-class submarines is also underway, promising domestic involvement and technology transfer.
Malaysia and the Philippines are taking similar steps. Malaysia’s navy is finally working with Naval Group to deliver long-delayed littoral combat ships. At the same time, Manila is set to receive 40 fast patrol boats from France, half of which will be constructed in local shipyards. The Philippines is also eyeing submarines, with Naval Group likely among the top contenders.
This tilt toward Europe isn’t simply about buying top-tier gear. It’s also about long-term industrial gains. Countries in the region increasingly view defense procurement as a way to acquire not just weapons but also technical knowledge, manufacturing capability and workforce skills. In other words, they’re buying security and economic development simultaneously.
China’s Ambitions Face Old Obstacles
Despite its growing military industry, China has yet to break into this market in a big way. Its J-10 fighters are cheaper and, as recent events suggest, potentially effective, but they’ve seen limited real-world combat. Even more importantly, China faces deep-rooted political barriers.
Ongoing maritime disputes with several Southeast Asian nations make it difficult for those countries to justify major defense purchases from Beijing. Trust remains a significant issue.
To compete, China would need to do more than offer lower prices. It must match the European approach of including local production, technology transfer and skill-building. These “sweeteners” often play a decisive role in procurement decisions — and so far, European firms, particularly French ones, have been more willing to meet those expectations.
Bottom Line: It’s About More Than Just the Hardware
For Southeast Asian nations, modernizing their militaries isn’t just buying weapons. It’s a strategic decision tied to national development goals. And in that equation, European defense firms are checking more boxes than China.
If Beijing wants to make serious inroads into this lucrative market, it will need to rethink its approach — offering not just competitive technology but also the partnerships and trust that countries in the region increasingly demand.
