It’s almost surreal to think that only a few years ago, the prospect of shipping American gas to Europe was treated with skepticism. In Washington, the industry faced pushback, while in Europe, leaders worried about becoming dependent on the U.S. just as they had on Russia.
Everything changed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Faced with an urgent need to wean itself off Russian energy, Europe embraced liquefied natural gas from the United States. By 2023, a once-fringe idea had transformed into a cornerstone of Europe’s energy security. The U.S. became the world’s largest gas exporter, and transatlantic energy cooperation was hailed as one of the quiet success stories of the war.
But now Donald Trump is threatening to throw this fragile arrangement into doubt. Despite repeatedly championing the idea of “American Energy Dominance,” Trump has signaled that he could restrict LNG exports if he feels they disadvantage U.S. consumers — or if Europe refuses to bend to his wider political demands.
The threat has rattled officials on both sides of the Atlantic. For Europe, which invested billions in terminals and infrastructure to handle U.S. shipments, any sudden reversal would be a seismic shock. For Washington, it would undercut years of diplomatic work that turned energy exports into a powerful tool of foreign policy.
Trump may view gas exports as just another bargaining chip in his transactional approach to international politics. But for Europe, the reliability of American supply is no longer a question of commerce — it’s a matter of survival.
