South Korea’s exports were projected to have increased in March at their most significant rate in years, driven by strong global demand for semiconductors, according to a Reuters poll of economists released Monday. The survey also indicated a rise in imports, influenced by higher energy prices linked to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
The median forecast from a poll of 25 economists predicted that exports for March would show a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. If official figures confirm this projection, it would mark the fastest pace of growth since May 2022 and the sixth consecutive month of rising exports for the nation.
Economists who participated in the survey primarily attributed the expected export strength to the performance of the semiconductor industry. Global investment in artificial intelligence technologies has fueled a substantial increase in demand for memory chips, a key South Korean export. Semiconductor exports were forecast to have risen for the fifth straight month.
The poll also found that imports were expected to have risen by 3.5% in March from the previous year, following a 13.1% decline in February. The surveyed economists pointed to rising global crude oil prices, a result of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as a primary factor for the increase in import values. South Korea is a major importer of energy.
As a result of the strong export forecast outpacing the projected rise in imports, economists anticipated a trade surplus for March. The median forecast for the trade surplus was $5.0 billion, which would mark the 10th consecutive month that exports have exceeded imports.
Additionally, the survey touched upon inflation concerns. The median forecast for the March consumer price index (CPI) was a 3.2% rise from a year earlier, slightly higher than the 3.1% increase recorded in February. The poll suggested that higher costs for energy and agricultural products were contributing factors to sustained inflation.
The official trade data for March is scheduled for release by the South Korean trade ministry on April 1. The inflation data is set to be released by Statistics Korea on April 2.
