A recent analysis conducted by Reuters found that approximately 40% of the world’s seaborne crude oil exports originate from countries engaged in or impacted by major conflicts. The calculation highlights the concentration of global energy supplies in regions experiencing significant geopolitical instability.
The report identifies two primary areas of concern contributing to this figure: Russia, following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and key producers in the Middle East affected by regional tensions.
According to the analysis, Russia remains a major global oil exporter despite sanctions imposed by Western nations. The ongoing war in Ukraine has placed its production and export routes at the center of international conflict and economic countermeasures, including a price cap on its crude oil implemented by G7 countries.
In the Middle East, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated regional instability. The analysis notes that attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi group have disrupted a critical maritime trade route. Major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait, rely on shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea to transport their exports.
While these producers are not directly involved in the Red Sea attacks, the proximity of the conflict and the targeting of vessels have altered global shipping patterns. Data from maritime analytics firms show that numerous oil tankers and other commercial ships are avoiding the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, opting for a longer and more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. This diversion can add 10 to 14 days to transit times and significantly increases fuel and insurance costs.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes, is also located in this volatile region, though it has not experienced the same level of disruption as the Red Sea.
The Reuters calculation underscores the extent to which a large portion of the global energy supply chain is linked to areas with active military and political conflicts. The findings are based on trade flow data and assessments of countries directly involved in conflicts or whose primary export routes are affected by them.
