Two new polls show Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie ahead of the country’s October presidential election. The polls, released Monday, come less than two weeks before the first round of voting is scheduled to take place on October 4.
A poll conducted by Quaest showed Bolsonaro with 42% of voter support in a potential runoff scenario, compared to 41% for Lula. A separate poll from BTG Pactual/Nexus indicated Lula had 46% of voter support, while Bolsonaro had 45%. The differences in both polls are within their respective margins of error.
The results mark a shift from a Quaest poll conducted on August 5, which placed Lula ahead of Bolsonaro by a five-point margin, 44% to 39%. Under Brazilian election law, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on October 25.
Lula, of the Workers’ Party, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president. He officially launched his re-election campaign on August 2 at his party’s convention in Sao Paulo.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a current senator, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible to hold office by Brazil’s top electoral court, which found he had abused his power during his presidency. He was later convicted in a separate case related to the 2022 election.
In recent months, President Lula has commented on trade relations with the United States. In July, the U.S. government imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products. Following the decision, Lula stated the tariffs were an attempt to apply economic pressure to influence the election.
President Lula is currently in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly. On Monday, he met with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Following the meeting, Lula told reporters they had discussed issues common to both Brazil and the United States, including the rising cost of living.
