Stock prices for major memory chip manufacturers, including South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron Technology, declined this week. The decreases followed an announcement from a Chinese competitor regarding a new product and a published report discussing potential future oversupply in the market.
During the five-day trading period ending Oct. 15, stock values for SK Hynix decreased by 26% and Samsung by 22%. Micron’s stock price fell by approximately 11% in the same period, according to market data.
Investor attention was drawn to an announcement from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a leading Chinese chipmaker, which detailed plans to introduce a new server memory product. The development prompted discussion among market observers about the potential for increased competition for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the three largest companies in the sector.
Some industry analysts commented on the feasibility of CXMT scaling its new technology. Ben Barringer, global head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC that manufacturing yields are a key factor in the viability of any new chip architecture.
Kevin Cassidy, a senior research analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, also told CNBC that he did not expect the development at CXMT to significantly alter the market’s supply-demand balance.
Separately, an opinion column in South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper contributed to market discussions. The column cited Professor Hwang of Seoul National University and Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, who, according to a CNBC translation, expect a significant increase in memory chip supply by 2029. The column also mentioned that the industry could enter a downturn by 2030.
The article was noted by SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who posted on the social media platform X that China “will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028.”
These market movements occur as demand for memory chips has increased, driven by their use in artificial intelligence applications, data centers, and consumer electronics. This has led to higher prices for components such as random access memory (RAM) and has been a central question for investors monitoring the industry’s historical supply and demand cycles.
Counterpoint Research, a technology market research firm, published a forecast suggesting the price of DRAM, a type of memory, could fall by approximately 23% in 2028 compared to 2027.
Jeongku Choi, a senior research analyst at the firm, told CNBC that long-term agreements between suppliers and buyers may moderate the effects of traditional market cycles. “Suppliers and buyers enter into 3- to 5-year Long-Term Agreements (LTAs),” Choi said. “Consequently, even if a down cycle occurs, it is not expected to show the same sharp decline seen in the past.”
