Chili’s has overtaken Applebee’s in U.S. systemwide sales for the first time, signaling a major shift in the casual dining sector, according to data from restaurant analytics firm Technomic.
Between 2021 and 2024, Chili’s grew its sales from $3.6 billion to $4.6 billion. Over the same period, Applebee’s remained flat at about $4.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2025, Applebee’s posted its eighth consecutive decline in same-store sales, while Chili’s reported a 31% increase.
“When you look at the long-term historical performance of the brands and their future potential, the stock at the moment is not anticipating what we think are the fundamentals of the company and the potential for growth,” said John Peyton, CEO of Dine Brands, which owns Applebee’s and IHOP.
Dine Brands’ stock has dropped about 40% over the past year. Analyst Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc Capital Markets said, “Getting back to positive same-store sales growth could be a huge catalyst for the stock.”
Dine Brands operates with an “asset light” model, meaning nearly all its restaurants are franchised. “Investors tend to like asset-light businesses because the earnings volatility is very small,” said Gonzalez. He added, however, “It just doesn’t have a lot of attention because there aren’t many franchised, full-service businesses to compare it to.”
Brinker International owns Chili’s and operates primarily company-owned restaurants, giving it more direct control over operations. In 2024, Brinker boosted labor spending by 34% and restaurant costs by 28%.
“The franchisee model is great as far as financial engineering… But the downside to that is you don’t have operational control,” said Tim Hynes of Debtwire.
Dine Brands is investing in restaurant remodels and testing dual-branded IHOP–Applebee’s locations. “It was $2 million a year in sales, IHOP, and it’s now running at a rate of $6 million a year, adding an Applebee’s,” said Peyton.
According to CNBC, Dine Brands hopes these efforts will help regain momentum as it faces stronger competition from more agile chains like Chili’s.
