China’s General Administration of Customs reported Tuesday that the country’s exports and imports grew significantly in June, with both figures exceeding economists’ forecasts. Exports for the month increased by 27% from the same period a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms, while imports rose by 36%, according to the official data.
The 27% export growth marks the fastest rate of increase since October 2021 and is an acceleration from the 19.4% gain reported in May. The figure surpassed the 18.2% growth estimate from a poll of economists. Similarly, the 36% rise in imports was the largest since June 2021, quickening from May’s 27.4% growth and beating a forecast of 24%. The country’s trade surplus for June stood at $125.6 billion.
An analysis of the customs data shows changes in trade with key partners. Exports to the United States increased by approximately 14% last month, while imports from the U.S. grew by 26%. Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose by about 35%, with imports from the bloc increasing by 27%. Trade with the European Union saw exports increase by 18.5% and imports grow by over 9%.
Tianchen Xu, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, attributed the export strength to increased shipments to the U.S., both directly and through ASEAN countries. Separately, a survey from China Beige Book published last month indicated that factory activity had accelerated in June.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, stated that exports could remain strong in the second half of the year. The data release comes as China and the European Union are engaged in trade discussions. Last month, officials from both sides established a consultation mechanism, with European officials citing October as a target for achieving specific outcomes.
The customs report also highlighted specific sectors. Chinese exports of integrated circuits totaled $38 billion in June, more than double the amount from the same month last year. In contrast, the country’s crude oil imports fell 41% from a year ago to 29.3 million tons. For the first half of the year, total oil imports by volume decreased by 11% compared to the same period in the previous year.
The trade figures were released ahead of other key economic indicators. China is scheduled to report its gross domestic product for the second quarter on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a growth rate of 4.5%, a decrease from the 5% growth recorded in the first quarter. Data on industrial output and retail sales for June are also expected on the same day.
