China’s economic activity showed slower growth in several key sectors in July, according to official data released Monday. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that growth in retail sales and industrial output moderated, while fixed-asset investment contracted at a faster pace and the urban unemployment rate rose.
The NBS data, published on August 17, 2026, indicated that retail sales increased by 0.6% in July from the same month last year. This figure was below the 1.5% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and lower than the 1% growth recorded in June.
Industrial output rose by 4.5% year-over-year, also missing the Reuters poll estimate of 4.8% and decelerating from June’s 5.3% increase.
Urban fixed-asset investment for the period from January to July contracted by 6.7% compared to the same period in the previous year. This was a larger contraction than the 6% decline analysts had estimated and exceeded the 5.7% drop reported for the first half of the year. Within this category, real estate investment fell by 19.2% in the first seven months of the year, while investment in infrastructure and manufacturing contracted by 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2% in July, an increase from 5.0% in June, the NBS reported.
In a statement accompanying the release, an NBS spokesperson, Fu Linghui, attributed the July economic performance to factors including “geopolitical pressure abroad and high temperatures domestically.” Fu also noted that retail sales of services grew by 5% in the first seven months of the year, compared to a 1.1% increase in the retail sales of goods during the same period.
Following the data release, some economists offered their perspectives. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, stated the figures point to “further downside risks” and suggested they might increase expectations for a policy response from the People’s Bank of China.
Analyses from financial institutions provided additional context. Economists at Goldman Sachs noted that retail sales growth has slowed, attributing part of the trend to the fading effects of a government trade-in subsidy program. Separately, Barclays calculated from People’s Bank of China data that new bank loans in July saw their largest monthly decline on record.
Regarding employment, a private survey by a team led by Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University, estimated China’s broad unemployment rate at 10.2% as of July. This figure, which includes individuals unemployed for the past two years, is higher than the official rate.
Data on foreign trade presented a different trend. Exports in July increased by 23.9% from a year earlier, while imports grew by 27.5%. China’s trade surplus reached $687.4 billion for the January-to-July period.
