The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September on Wednesday, providing a key measure of inflation for policymakers and the public. Economists are forecasting a rise in both monthly and annual inflation rates, driven in part by increasing energy costs.
According to a poll of economists by Dow Jones, the headline CPI is expected to show a 0.6% increase for the month of September and a 3.6% increase from the same period one year ago. The projected annual figure would mark an acceleration in the rate of inflation, moving it further from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
The forecast for “core” CPI, which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy, is a 0.2% rise from August and a 2.5% increase on a 12-month basis.
Analysts have pointed to energy prices as a primary factor influencing the headline inflation number.
“We’ve got real upside risk on the September CPI,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM.
Prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose more than 14% in September, contributing to a third-quarter increase of approximately 42%. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading around $105 per barrel.
The upcoming inflation data is significant for the Federal Reserve, which implemented its first interest rate increase in three years last month. Minutes from the central bank’s recent policy meeting indicated that further rate hikes are being considered to manage inflation.
Robert Sockin, chief U.S. economist at asset manager PGIM, commented on the potential for energy prices to influence the Fed’s decisions. According to Sockin, sustained high oil costs could make it more difficult for the central bank to treat the price surge as a short-term event not requiring further monetary policy action.
Based on data from the CME FedWatch tool, traders in the fed funds futures market anticipate the Federal Reserve will next raise interest rates at its December policy meeting.
The September report is the last CPI release before the November midterm elections. Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan has registered a decline in economic confidence across political affiliations in 2026. The data shows that since the start of the year, reported sentiment has fallen more steeply among Republican and independent voters than among Democrats.
Following the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, which measures inflation facing wholesalers. Economists forecast the PPI will show a 0.6% monthly increase and a 5.5% annual increase.
