Nationwide protests began in Iran on Dec. 28, reportedly sparked by the falling value of the national currency. The demonstrations, which started with shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, have since expanded to include a broader segment of the population and encompass wider economic and social grievances, according to multiple news reports.
The protests follow a period of economic difficulty in the country. Observers have cited several factors contributing to the discontent, including the devaluation of the Iranian rial, water and electricity shortages, unemployment, and inflation. The economic situation has been affected by United States sanctions, which were reimposed in 2018.
In response to the initial protests, the Iranian government implemented several economic measures. These included replacing the governor of the central bank and modifying an exchange rate policy for certain imports, opting instead for a monthly cash transfer, according to state media.
As demonstrations continued, security forces were deployed. The government imposed widespread internet and communication blackouts beginning around Jan. 8. Authorities have not released an official count of arrests or protester casualties. Government sources report that more than 100 security personnel have been killed. In contrast, opposition activists claim hundreds of protesters have also died, though these figures have not been independently verified.
President Masoud Pezeskhian commented on the country’s economic challenges shortly before the protests began, stating, “I can’t do anything.”
Several analysts have commented on the current situation. Roxana Farmanfarmaian, a professor at the University of Cambridge, noted the government’s limited options for resolving the economic issues. “We see that the regime is very isolated and without many options to solve the economic problems,” she said.
The protests are occurring amid heightened international tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump has made public statements regarding potential military action against Iran. In June, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, following a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, said Iranian officials perceive a connection between the internal protests and external pressures. “There is a widespread view within the system that this is being completely coordinated by the US and Israel,” Parsi stated.
In a rare move concerning domestic affairs, the Iranian army issued a statement affirming its support for the government and its intent to protect the nation’s infrastructure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the U.S. position in an interview with Al Jazeera, stating that Iran is “ready for war.”
Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, offered an analysis of potential U.S. strategy, referencing the January U.S. operation in which Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was taken into custody. Nasr suggested that U.S. actions in Venezuela might inform how Iranian leaders interpret U.S. intentions.
Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, described the situation as a “critical juncture” for Iran’s leadership. He outlined two potential paths: seeking an “accommodation” with the U.S. administration or continuing on the current trajectory of “economic deterioration, recurrent mass protest, and the gradual erosion of cohesion within the security services.”
