Global oil prices increased on Wednesday following a statement from United States Central Command that its forces destroyed five Iranian crude tankers in the Middle East a day earlier. The military action has contributed to market concerns regarding the stability of regional energy supplies.
Futures for Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.55% to $99.44 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, the U.S. benchmark, saw a 1.75% increase, reaching $94.66 a barrel.
In a statement released Tuesday, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said the action was taken in retaliation for attempted attacks on a U.S. warship. According to the statement, the American vessel was not damaged, and no U.S. personnel were harmed during the incident.
The development prompted commentary from financial analysts regarding potential impacts on the oil market. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, stated in an interview with CNBC that the probability of Brent crude exceeding $120 a barrel has increased.
“The developments over the last few days do suggest that that alternative upside price scenario, where exports actually stagnate over the coming few months, and where Brent exceeds $120 is the probability of that scenario is definitely going up,” Struyven said.
He clarified that Goldman Sachs’ base case forecast anticipates a gradual recovery for Persian Gulf exports as producers adapt by using alternative shipping routes and expanding pipeline capacity. However, Struyven noted that the recent events increase the chances of a scenario in which exports fail to recover, leading to higher prices.
The military engagement reported by Centcom follows an approximate one-month pause in direct military actions between the U.S. and Iran in the region.
