U.S. Treasury yields decreased on Thursday, October 15, 2026, after a government report released the previous day showed that September’s inflation rate was higher than economists had forecast. Investors are now awaiting further economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.
On Thursday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 5.099%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was down over 8 basis points to 5.439%, and the 2-year Treasury note yield moved 6 basis points lower to 4.74%. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship.
The market movements followed the Wednesday release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report, which measures costs for a wide range of goods and services, showed the index rose 0.6% in September from the prior month and 3.7% on an annual basis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.6% annual increase.
Core CPI, a metric that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the last year. The Dow Jones survey had estimated a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.5% annual gain for core inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report stated that a 9.1% increase in gasoline costs accounted for half of the headline CPI’s monthly gain, while the broader energy index rose 5.2%.
The inflation data comes two weeks before the Federal Reserve is scheduled to make its next decision on interest rates. According to a note from Deutsche Bank analysts, speculation of a rate hike initially rose after the CPI report was released. However, data from the CME FedWatch Tool later indicated that traders were pricing in a 31% chance of an interest rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting.
Investors are also anticipating the release of additional economic indicators later in the day, including the producer price index, retail sales data for September, and the latest weekly report on initial jobless claims.
